Why Monaco? Because it is not just the symbol of the good life, but its personification and people’s aspiration of “Living like a God in Monaco”. Monaco is the epicenter of experience and living life to the fullest. Why Roaring Party? For this you must read the rest of the article; its economic, societal, and scientific foundation of the reasoning behind which a brighter future awaits.

Speaking about the old good times and projecting them to the future is not taking one's dreams as reality, it is the scientific -as long as you consider economics and sociology a science- prediction based on serious considerations by even more serious economists.

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First, a small lesson on economic history without which misunderstandings become fake news. (Some) economists warn that throwing money at the economy could lead to an economic crisis compared to the Great Depression. It is strange how every economic crisis leads to comparisons of the Great Depression. The reasons are comprehensible. It is the last great economic crisis that is fully documented and still on our minds and culminated in the biggest human suffering and atrocities: World War II and the Holocaust. The European Central Bank (ECB) injected so much cash into the economy that for the first time its balance surpassed the 7000 billion mark. This is a 7 with 12 zero’s behind it and counting. The question is if the massive money injection will revive the economy or put it at risk of repeating itself like in the 1920s.

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The Great Depression began in October 1929 (Black Friday) when stock prices fell 22%  and lasted 10 years. The crash wiped out $30 billion in value or almost $400 billion in today’s dollars. The economy contracted already earlier in August 1929. It is not difficult to see the equivalence with the crash of 2008. The absence of a social system made unemployment rise from 3% to 25% and halved salaries. Between November 1929 and March 1933, the consumer index fell 27%. World trade plummeted 66% between 1929 and 1934. Germany’s financial reparations from WWI led to hyperinflation, then to desperation, and finally to the election of Adolf Hitler. So taking time to reflect on the current situation is not just a debate on economic theory, but predictive considerations that will define our future for the next 10 years.

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Germany, the country in question in the above paragraph, is the most opposed to the ECB’s policy.

They predict that throwing money into the economy can only result in unmanageable inflation.

 

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But this explanation of the rise of Nazism does not correspond to the time frame. Hitler came to power not during the hyperinflation of the ’20s, but during a continuous period of deflation of the 1930s. That deflation was the result of strong austerity politics by Chancellor Heinrich Brüning. So, Hitler, the populist of his time came to power because of his fight against austerity which resulted in mass unemployment. Printing money can indeed lead to inflation, but the rollback of expenses results in a much worse economic and social catastrophe.

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The example of Greece’s financial crisis underlines this constatation in our very near past. Modern politicians are more than aware of this and therefore it is realistic to predict a long time of quantitative easing by central banks including inflation and of course exuberance.

Nicholas Christakis is a sociologist and an epidemiologist and a sterling (highest academic rank awarded to those considered the best in their field) professor at Yale University. Christakis predicts an exhilarated reaction to the currently forced abstinence from social contacts. Social interaction follows loosely the same laws as physics and in most cases seems to be quite predictable. Newton’s third law states: for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. 2020 has been a year of lockdowns and isolation. An equal and opposite reaction is nothing less of the return to the roaring parties of the roaring (20) the ’20s. The H1N1 virus of the 1918 Pandemic took 50 million lives worldwide. Covid-19 approaches 2 million deaths. But due to globalization and media, the impact on the lives of the current world population can be compared to the events of a century ago. We are accustomed to more travel and more movement in general than our grandparents and therefore the distortion to our lives is bigger. Social interaction and mass events have become part of society and were abruptly restricted by an event that our generation has never experienced.

Christakis examined in his book Apollo’s Arrow the patterns of historic pandemics. They all had in common: avoidance of social contacts, quarantine, collapsing economies, insecurity, and surge of religiosity.  Taking fewer risks means having less fun. But the reaction following the pandemics was also the same: a catch-up movement or compensation which translated in into spending, inflation, and what has stayed in our common memory “the roaring twenties”. Christakis expects the return to exuberance in 2024. My personal estimation is more optimistic and I bet already in 2022. The world runs faster than in 1920 and waiting has disappeared from our instant social and economic life. 2021 will be the year of vaccination and 2022 of exuberance; at least for the Western World. The stock exchanges already anticipate the coming spending boom. A European company has already registered in anticipation the name “Roaring Party”. Its parties and products will cover the world with positivity which humanity always missed, but this generation has been accustomed to much more and therefore misses its privileges even more so the compensation will be in proportion.

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For those able to reach the modern Mount Olympus which Monaco became for the jet-set I have the following message: you will be living in another world and experience it as never before. For all the others; you will see opportunities presented which can be grabbed for a better and fuller life. So the Future will be Monaco as real as you can afford it or aspire to it.

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